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Predicted as observed? How to identify empirically adequate theoretical constructs
[journal article]
Abstract The identification of an empirically adequate theoretical construct requires determining whether a theoretically predicted effect is sufficiently similar to an observed effect. To this end, we propose a simple similarity measure, describe its application in different research designs, and use comput... view more
The identification of an empirically adequate theoretical construct requires determining whether a theoretically predicted effect is sufficiently similar to an observed effect. To this end, we propose a simple similarity measure, describe its application in different research designs, and use computer simulations to estimate the necessary sample size for a given observed effect. As our main example, we apply this measure to recent meta-analytical research on precognition. Results suggest that the evidential basis is too weak for a predicted precognition effect of d = 0.20 to be considered empirically adequate. As additional examples, we apply this measure to object-level experimental data from dissonance theory and a recent crowdsourcing hypothesis test, as well as to meta-analytical data on the correlation of personality traits and life outcomes.... view less
Die Autor*innen schlagen ein simples Ähnlichkeitsmaß vor, beschreiben seine Anwendung in verschiedenen Forschungsdesigns und verwenden Computersimulationen, um die erforderliche Stichprobengröße für einen bestimmten beobachteten Effekt zu schätzen.
Classification
Basic Research, General Concepts and History of Psychology
Free Keywords
Paul Meehl; crowdsourcing hypothesis test; dissonance theory; empirical adequacy; meta-analysis; personality research; precognition; theory construction
Document language
English
Publication Year
2022
Journal
Frontiers in Psychology, 13 (2022)
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.980261
ISSN
1664-1078
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed