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%T Predicted as observed? How to identify empirically adequate theoretical constructs %A Witte, Erich H. %A Stanciu, Adrian %A Zenker, Frank %J Frontiers in Psychology %V 13 %D 2022 %K Paul Meehl; crowdsourcing hypothesis test; dissonance theory; empirical adequacy; meta-analysis; personality research; precognition; theory construction %@ 1664-1078 %~ GESIS %> https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-83597-9 %U localfile:/var/tmp/crawlerFiles/deepGreen/56b315f8f4ba42b981f45a356029dda1/56b315f8f4ba42b981f45a356029dda1.pdf %X The identification of an empirically adequate theoretical construct requires determining whether a theoretically predicted effect is sufficiently similar to an observed effect. To this end, we propose a simple similarity measure, describe its application in different research designs, and use computer simulations to estimate the necessary sample size for a given observed effect. As our main example, we apply this measure to recent meta-analytical research on precognition. Results suggest that the evidential basis is too weak for a predicted precognition effect of d = 0.20 to be considered empirically adequate. As additional examples, we apply this measure to object-level experimental data from dissonance theory and a recent crowdsourcing hypothesis test, as well as to meta-analytical data on the correlation of personality traits and life outcomes. %X Die Autor*innen schlagen ein simples Ähnlichkeitsmaß vor, beschreiben seine Anwendung in verschiedenen Forschungsdesigns und verwenden Computersimulationen, um die erforderliche Stichprobengröße für einen bestimmten beobachteten Effekt zu schätzen. %C CHE %G en %9 Zeitschriftenartikel %W GESIS - http://www.gesis.org %~ SSOAR - http://www.ssoar.info