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Citizens' stability of electoral preferences in Chile since the social upheaval
[journal article]
Abstract A strong oscillation of electoral preferences took place in Chile between the election of the members of the Constitutional Convention in May 2021 and the election of the members of the Constitutional Council in May 2023. This is surprising because, until the national-scale social uprising in 2019, ... view more
A strong oscillation of electoral preferences took place in Chile between the election of the members of the Constitutional Convention in May 2021 and the election of the members of the Constitutional Council in May 2023. This is surprising because, until the national-scale social uprising in 2019, there was a broad consensus that Chile was a highly institutionalised party system where political preferences tended to be stable. In this research note, we study how the electoral choices made by citizens shifted between both elections, using the ecological inference approach based on a Bayesian hierarchical model developed elsewhere. We find that a vast majority of the new voters that resulted from the compulsory voting policy implemented between both elections opted for centre-right to right-wing candidates. However, this evidence is insufficient to determine whether these new voters predominantly align with right-leaning ideologies or hold anti-systemic viewpoints.... view less
Keywords
Chile; direct democracy; suffrage; voting behavior; party system; political center; political right; Latin America
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Free Keywords
Rechtsorientierte Partei; Verfassunggebende Versammlung
Document language
English
Publication Year
2024
Page/Pages
p. 50-67
Journal
Journal of Politics in Latin America, 16 (2024) 1
Issue topic
Democracy in Distress: Social Unrest, Representation, and the Constitutional Process in Chile
ISSN
1868-4890
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed