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The Indo-Pacific: Confidence-Building in Times of Growing Conflict Potential
[working paper]
Corporate Editor
German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) - Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien, Institut für Asien-Studien
Abstract The Indo-Pacific is a large and diverse region with multiple simmering conflicts. Growing geopolitical rivalries, militarisation, nuclear modernisation, and similar could lead to their escalation, with severe impacts also on Europe’s economy and security. Upgrading existing Confidence-Building Measu... view more
The Indo-Pacific is a large and diverse region with multiple simmering conflicts. Growing geopolitical rivalries, militarisation, nuclear modernisation, and similar could lead to their escalation, with severe impacts also on Europe’s economy and security. Upgrading existing Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) is needed to increase stability. Europe should use its albeit limited impact to assist. Simmering conflicts in the region range from territorial disputes between China, India, and Pakistan to territorially contested waters and islands in the South China Sea bearing further crisis-escalation risks. North Korea's aggressively pursued nuclear and ballistic missile programme threatens its neighbours and possibly the US. Rapid military advancement among the key countries active in the region, regarding nuclear and non-nuclear weapon systems alike, will fundamentally challenge regional defence and deterrence postures. While the status quo and fragile regional stability have worked in the absence of overarching institutionalised security arrangements until now, the future is less certain. Manyfold regional and subregional institutions have performed well in the past in securing peace, among them ASEAN, the Six-Party Talks with North Korea, and the Asia Regional Forum. New formats such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between Australia, India, Japan, and the US or the Australia, UK, US pact are advancing security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Doubts remain, however, about whether they will be able to manage new risks in the face of geopolitical changes and new technological and military developments.... view less
Keywords
Indian Ocean; Pacific Rim; security policy; international relations; conflict management; EU
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Indopazifik; Sicherheitspolitische Beziehungen; Regionale internationale Sicherheit; Konfliktprävention
Document language
English
Publication Year
2023
City
Hamburg
Page/Pages
11 p.
Series
GIGA Focus Asien, 6
DOI
https://doi.org/10.57671/gfas-23062
Status
Published Version; reviewed