The Indo-Pacific: Confidence-Building in Times of Growing Conflict Potential

Abstract

The Indo-Pacific is a large and diverse region with multiple simmering conflicts. Growing geopolitical rivalries, militarisation, nuclear modernisation, and similar could lead to their escalation, with severe impacts also on Europe’s economy and security. Upgrading existing Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) is needed to increase stability. Europe should use its albeit limited impact to assist. Simmering conflicts in the region range from territorial disputes between China, India, and Pakistan to territorially contested waters and islands in the South China Sea bearing further crisis-escalation risks. North Korea's aggressively pursued nuclear and ballistic missile programme threatens its neighbours and possibly the US. Rapid military advancement among the key countries active in the region, regarding nuclear and non-nuclear weapon systems alike, will fundamentally challenge regional defence and deterrence postures. While the status quo and fragile regional stability have worked in the absence of overarching institutionalised security arrangements until now, the future is less certain. Manyfold regional and subregional institutions have performed well in the past in securing peace, among them ASEAN, the Six-Party Talks with North Korea, and the Asia Regional Forum. New formats such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between Australia, India, Japan, and the US or the Australia, UK, US pact are advancing security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Doubts remain, however, about whether they will be able to manage new risks in the face of geopolitical changes and new technological and military developments.