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Russia's catch-all nuclear rhetoric in its war against Ukraine: a balancing act between deterrence, dissuasion, and compellence strategies
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract A close reading of Russia's nuclear statements and actions during the first seven months of its war against Ukraine reveals a threefold approach. Moscow is walking a fine line between a well-crafted and successful deterrence strategy to prevent foreign military intervention; a more modest and rather... view more
A close reading of Russia's nuclear statements and actions during the first seven months of its war against Ukraine reveals a threefold approach. Moscow is walking a fine line between a well-crafted and successful deterrence strategy to prevent foreign military intervention; a more modest and rather unsuccessful attempt at dissuading foreign aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia; and incremental nuclear coercion against Kyiv that spurred Western deterrence messaging in response. This analysis reveals a careful Russian approach, suggesting that cost-benefit calculations are likely to continue to render nuclear escalation unlikely. However, nuclear use cannot be fully discounted, particularly if war-related developments severely imperil the survival of Russia's regime. (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
Russia; Ukraine; war; threat; provocation; deterrence; warfare
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Nuklearer Schlag; Rhetorik; Bedrohungsvorstellungen (Sicherheitspolitik); Militärische Bedrohungsanalyse; Entscheidungsprozess bei internationalem Akteur; Gegenmaßnahme
Document language
English
Publication Year
2022
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
4 p.
Series
SWP Comment, 60/2022
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2022C60
ISSN
2747-5107
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications