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%T Russia's catch-all nuclear rhetoric in its war against Ukraine: a balancing act between deterrence, dissuasion, and compellence strategies %A Horovitz, Liviu %A Arndt, Anna Clara %P 4 %V 60/2022 %D 2022 %K Nuklearer Schlag; Rhetorik; Bedrohungsvorstellungen (Sicherheitspolitik); Militärische Bedrohungsanalyse; Entscheidungsprozess bei internationalem Akteur; Gegenmaßnahme %@ 2747-5107 %~ SWP %> https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-85130-7 %X A close reading of Russia's nuclear statements and actions during the first seven months of its war against Ukraine reveals a threefold approach. Moscow is walking a fine line between a well-crafted and successful deterrence strategy to prevent foreign military intervention; a more modest and rather unsuccessful attempt at dissuading foreign aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia; and incremental nuclear coercion against Kyiv that spurred Western deterrence messaging in response. This analysis reveals a careful Russian approach, suggesting that cost-benefit calculations are likely to continue to render nuclear escalation unlikely. However, nuclear use cannot be fully discounted, particularly if war-related developments severely imperil the survival of Russia's regime. (author's abstract) %C DEU %C Berlin %G en %9 Stellungnahme %W GESIS - http://www.gesis.org %~ SSOAR - http://www.ssoar.info