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Valence Secession? Voting Shocks and Independence Support in Scotland
[journal article]
Abstract National identifications, cues from political actors, and cost-benefit calculations have been pointed as the main determinants of secession preferences. However, a recent surge in independence support in Scotland suggests that abrupt political changes may also affect these preferences: Brexit and th... view more
National identifications, cues from political actors, and cost-benefit calculations have been pointed as the main determinants of secession preferences. However, a recent surge in independence support in Scotland suggests that abrupt political changes may also affect these preferences: Brexit and the differentiated management of the Covid-19 pandemic by the UK and the Scottish governments are named as causes of the first independence sustained majority registered by polling in Scotland. In this article, I discuss how voting shocks may affect the levels of support for independence, revise the evidence that sustains these claims, and analyse how they have changed the profile of the pro-independence voter. The effect of these questions has substantial implications for a possible second independence referendum in Scotland, as well as for the broader debate on the sources of secession support.... view less
Keywords
Great Britain; secession; public opinion; referendum; national identity; party; identification
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Political System, Constitution, Government
Free Keywords
Brexit; Covid-19; pandemic; Scotland; independence referendums
Document language
English
Publication Year
2021
Page/Pages
p. 399-411
Journal
Politics and Governance, 9 (2021) 4
Issue topic
Secessionism in Liberal Democracies: What Do We Really Know About the Explanations of Secessionism?
ISSN
2183-2463
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed