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https://doi.org/10.13094/SMIF-2015-00002
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Should Recall of Previous Votes Be Used to Adjust Estimates of Voting Intention?
[journal article]
Abstract Correction of estimates of voting intention using voter recall of previous votes is frequent in electoral polls,
particularly in Europe. However, research on the impact of its use is scarce. The results presented in this paper
confirm that voting is not a salient, memorable behaviour for all voter... view more
Correction of estimates of voting intention using voter recall of previous votes is frequent in electoral polls,
particularly in Europe. However, research on the impact of its use is scarce. The results presented in this paper
confirm that voting is not a salient, memorable behaviour for all voters. People who always vote the same way and
identify with a political party are likely to accurately remember their vote, but in most developed countries, change
of allegiance is now common. A substantial portion of the electorate changes its mind between or during
campaigns, and switchers seem to have more difficulty remembering how they voted. Recall error is not random.
Voters’ misremembering a previous vote to reconcile it with how they currently wish to vote (reconciliation) and,
above all, the difficulty in reaching voters for far-right or populist parties/candidates, and in convincing them to
reveal their true vote or voting intention are the main explanations for error. Memory failure also plays a role, but
the overall impact appears to be weak. Finally, reconciliation and social desirability also play roles when it comes
to correcting estimates using recall of past voting, but the overall impact is weak. The results presented here show
that, at best, the practice does not have a significant, substantial, impact on estimates. We suggest that
researchers and pollsters would do better to focus their energies on tackling the problem itself instead of working
on a posteriori correction.... view less
Keywords
sample; response behavior; data capture; weighting; selection procedure; reliability; validity; Canada; France; estimation; method; voting behavior; social factors; demographic factors
Classification
Methods and Techniques of Data Collection and Data Analysis, Statistical Methods, Computer Methods
Free Keywords
adjustment; electoral polls; vote estimates; voter recall; weighting
Document language
German
Publication Year
2015
Page/Pages
p. 1-14
Journal
Survey Methods: Insights from the Field (2015)
Issue topic
Weighting: Practical Issues and ‘How to’ Approach
ISSN
2296-4754
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed