Should Recall of Previous Votes Be Used to Adjust Estimates of Voting Intention?

Abstract

Correction of estimates of voting intention using voter recall of previous votes is frequent in electoral polls, particularly in Europe. However, research on the impact of its use is scarce. The results presented in this paper confirm that voting is not a salient, memorable behaviour for all voters. People who always vote the same way and identify with a political party are likely to accurately remember their vote, but in most developed countries, change of allegiance is now common. A substantial portion of the electorate changes its mind between or during campaigns, and switchers seem to have more difficulty remembering how they voted. Recall error is not random. Voters’ misremembering a previous vote to reconcile it with how they currently wish to vote (reconciliation) and, above all, the difficulty in reaching voters for far-right or populist parties/candidates, and in convincing them to reveal their true vote or voting intention are the main explanations for error. Memory failure also plays a role, but the overall impact appears to be weak. Finally, reconciliation and social desirability also play roles when it comes to correcting estimates using recall of past voting, but the overall impact is weak. The results presented here show that, at best, the practice does not have a significant, substantial, impact on estimates. We suggest that researchers and pollsters would do better to focus their energies on tackling the problem itself instead of working on a posteriori correction.