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Forecasting actions of Baltic elites: a scenario approach
Об основных прогнозах действий политических элит Прибалтики: сценарный подход
[journal article]
Abstract This paper provides an overview of different approaches to forecasting the future of the three Baltic States. The author's theoretical approach to studying Baltic elites is used to forecast changes in the action models of the Baltic elites. The article stresses the scarcity of internal political pro... view more
This paper provides an overview of different approaches to forecasting the future of the three Baltic States. The author's theoretical approach to studying Baltic elites is used to forecast changes in the action models of the Baltic elites. The article stresses the scarcity of internal political processes in the Baltics. However, a significant number of scenarios focusing on military aspects in the Baltics have recently been published. The author distinguishes between inertia, confrontation, and cooperation scenarios and examines their prerequisites and possible consequences. The scenarios are developed based on an analysis of geographic, economic, and political factors. The decisive factor is a state-controlled foreign policy, which is affected by the international situation as well as relations between the state and the external resources exploited by political elites. The paper contributes to the general debate about the factors of political development and the role of political elites in it. The author pr ovides additional material for analysing possible developments in the domestic policies of the Baltic States in view of external factors.... view less
Keywords
political elite; Baltic States; Lithuania; Latvia; Estonia; prognosis; scenario; foreign policy; domestic policy; economic factors; political factors; geographical factors; policy of confrontation; cooperation
Classification
Area Development Planning, Regional Research
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Document language
English
Publication Year
2016
Page/Pages
p. 84-97
Journal
Baltic Region (2016) 3
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5922/2079-8555-2016-3-7
ISSN
2079-8555
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed