The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the shadow of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

This article aims to analyze the role of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its repercussions on the recent developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, including the September 2023 military operation, the subsequent exodus of Karabakh Armenians and the withdrawal of Russian peacekepeers from the region in April 2024. The research is based on the comparative analysis of three main factors that have shaped the new reality in the post-2020 conflict. It examines the effects of the Second Karabakh War and the significant shift in the regional balance of power before the Russian invasion of 2022. It also discusses the immediate consequences of the war in Ukraine on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, focusing on the analysis of Russia’s changing calculations and new challenges in the South Caucasus, the growing influence of Azerbaijan and Turkey in the region, and the intensified cooperation between Armenia, the EU and the United States. Finally, it analyzes Azerbaijan's "salami tactics" during December 2022-April 2024 in the light of several months of blockade, the lack of confidence-building measures to reconstruct trust between communities, and the unwillingness of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic to negotiate with official Baku. The analysis of interconnection between the war in Ukraine and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the context of these three factors is crucial for understanding the evolving power balances and strategic calculations in the South Caucasus, as well as the broader implications for peace and stability in the post-Soviet space.