Can emerging markets be a source of global troubles again?

Abstract

After two turbulent decades (1980s and 1990s) when emerging-market economies were frequent victims of financial crises, in the first two decades of the 21st century their macroeconomic performance improved. Nevertheless, there were three crisis episodes that hit some of these countries: (i) the spill-over effects of the global financial crisis in2008-2009; (ii) the consequences of the decline in commodity prices in 2014-2016 for their exporters; (iii) the turbulence in Argentina and Turkey in 2018. Currency crises in Argentina and Turkey in 2018 underlined again the key role of prudent domestic policies. Early policy correction can help to prevent a crisis and avoid its economic, social and political costs. If crisis cannot be avoided, the comprehensive anti-crisis package, including up-front monetary and fiscal adjustment, should be adopted as quickly as possible to arrest market panic and reverse negative expectations.