Where you export matters

Abstract

Economic complexity theory deepens our understanding of export diversification. However, it relies on aggregated data which might disguise important details. In particular, these data do not take information on importers into account even though this information can provide new insights about the pace of economic complexity evolution in a particular economy. The paper introduces these new insights by incorporating more detailed export data into analysis. I find that wealthier economies not only tend to export more sophisticated products, but also sell them to richer destinations. I discuss the case of Russia which seeks to become a more complex economy and gain technological sovereignty by implementing reindustrialization policy. However, Russian complex products rarely conquer richer markets and are better known to Russia's geographic neighbors. Our findings suggest that such a pattern of reindustrialization might not be promising as long as a higher level of wealth is a concern. The paper claims that even though redesigning industrial policy such that it becomes more conditioned on export outcomes is not a solution to the problem, it is, however, one of its important ingredients.