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The fiscal gap: An estimate for Russia
[journal article]
Abstract The fiscal gap is an indicator of the long-term balance of public finance and is calculated based on the intertemporal government budget constraint, which links government tax revenues and expenditures over long intervals. The estimate of the fiscal gap for the Russian general government has been de... view more
The fiscal gap is an indicator of the long-term balance of public finance and is calculated based on the intertemporal government budget constraint, which links government tax revenues and expenditures over long intervals. The estimate of the fiscal gap for the Russian general government has been determined according to three scenarios with varying assumptions regarding demographic trends, productivity growth rates, oil and gas prices and the quantity of extractable reserves. The calculations show that the current fiscal policy cannot provide for the stability of public finance in the long run. The main factors of budget imbalances are the growth of pension and health care expenditures caused by demographic trends and the gradual decline in tax receipts from the oil and gas sector.... view less
Keywords
fiscal policy; budgetary policy; tax revenue; social expenditures; estimation; Russia
Classification
Public Finance
Free Keywords
fiscal sustainability; demographic forecast; oil and gas revenues; pension system
Document language
English
Publication Year
2015
Page/Pages
p. 240-256
Journal
Russian Journal of Economics, 1 (2015) 3
ISSN
2618-7213
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Creative Commons - Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0