South Africa's Watershed Election: The Dawn of Coalition Politics

Abstract

On 29 May 2024, South Africa experienced a seismic moment as the African National Congress (ANC) lost its absolute majority for the first time since 1994. This pivotal outcome signals, amid profound domestic crises and significant international challenges, a major shift in South Africa's domestic political landscape. Yet, the country's foreign policy orientation is likely to remain intact. South Africa faces the prospect of its first coalition government at a time when decisive action is needed to combat slow economic growth, rolling power blackouts, high crime rates, and stubborn poverty. Despite its severe losses, with a vote share of 40.2 per cent the ANC remains the country's biggest party. In his likely second, and final, term in office, President Cyril Ramaphosa must act decisively to redeem the ANC in the eyes of voters. The newcomer uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party was the clear winner of the ANC's lost support, having secured 14.6 per cent of the vote. Endorsed by former President Jacob Zuma, the MK Party displaced the Economic Freedom Fighters as South Africa's third-biggest political party. The popularity of the main opposition, the Democratic Alliance, stayed steady with only a slight increase of 1 per cent in its vote share. A challenge facing the new coalition government is the need to reconcile South Africa's competing foreign policy goals: namely, to promote a rules-based international order while also strengthening Africa's global position and South-South cooperation.