Reassertion and Aggression: Exploring the Impact of Russian Federation's Actions on Ukraine and the Black Sea Region

Abstract

Since the fall of the communist bloc, the Russian Federation has constantly sought to reassert itself on the international political scene as a global actor, using a wide range of means and actions in this direction, some even exceeding the scope of legality and legitimacy of action. The Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, which broke out in February 2022, is one of the most heated contemporary issues in International Relations that generated regional repercussions in political, economic and social terms, echoing in the entire international political system. As a consequence, this armed aggression generated fundamental changes in the Black Sea Region, especially from a social perspective, as it created a migratory wave of Ukrainian citizens who wanted nothing more than to flee the path of war. In this article, I want to investigate the immediate effects of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation on Ukraine from a social point of view - against the background of the huge migration wave in the European states - and politically - the coalition of the member countries of the European Union in providing support to the Ukrainian forces in order to survive in front of the Russian invading forces. Moreover, using the scenario method on the present data available on open source, I would like to explore the possible outcomes of the war and their implications from the social, economic, and political standpoints. This will allow me to foresee how the "new normal" would look like for the nations and which measures they need to adopt for a sustainable future.