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Trump II and US nuclear assurances to NATO: policy options instead of alarmism
Trump II und die nukleare Rückversicherung der Nato: Lösungsansätze statt Alarmismus
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract While a second Trump Presidency would be challenging for transatlantic ties, US nuclear assurances to its NATO allies in Europe would likely be the last casualty - not the first - of a fraying relationship. There is an intrinsic incompatibility between the United States completely abandoning its rol... view more
While a second Trump Presidency would be challenging for transatlantic ties, US nuclear assurances to its NATO allies in Europe would likely be the last casualty - not the first - of a fraying relationship. There is an intrinsic incompatibility between the United States completely abandoning its role as global actor, which would be the prerequisite for the withdrawal of such assurances, and Trump’s domestic interests. It cannot be denied that the worst-case scenario - namely, the end of extended nuclear deterrence - is possible and requires careful contingency planning on the part of the allies; but it is highly unlikely and should not distract from addressing the more probable outcome. Even in the best-case scenario of a Trump II administration resembling his first term, US nuclear assurances are likely to become less credible. To allay concerns, German and European policymakers should work with their US counterparts before and after the November 2024 election to strengthen transatlantic diplomatic coordination, conventional deterrence and defence, as well as nuclear options. (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
NATO; United States of America; transatlantic relations; deterrence; nuclear weapon; presidential election; EU; Russia; Ukraine; war
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy
Free Keywords
Trump, Donald; Prognose; Regionale strategische Konzeption; Isolationistische Politik
Document language
English
Publication Year
2024
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
7 p.
Series
SWP Comment, 17/2024
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2024C17
ISSN
2747-5107
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications