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@article{ Boese-Schlosser2024, title = {Democracy Doesn't Always Happen Over Night: Regime Change in Stages and Economic Growth}, author = {Boese-Schlosser, Vanessa A. and Eberhardt, Markus}, journal = {Review of Economics and Statistics}, pages = {1-29}, year = {2024}, issn = {1530-9142}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01461}, urn = {https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-94831-6}, abstract = {How substantial are the economic benefits from democratic regime change? We argue that democratisation is often not a discrete event but a two-stage process: autocracies enter into 'episodes' of political liberalisation which eventually culminate in regime change or not. To account for this chronology and the implicit counterfactual groups, we introduce a repeated-treatment difference-in-difference implementation capturing non-parallel trends and selection into treatment. We find that modelling regime change in two stages rather than a single event yields stronger long-run growth effects. Among democratizers, experiencing repeated episodes without regime change reduces growth in democracy whereas length of episode does not.}, keywords = {Demokratie; democracy; politische Entwicklung; political development; Liberalisierung; liberalization; Demokratisierung; democratization; Wirtschaftswachstum; economic growth}}