Food-Climate Nexus in the North River Basin of Afghanistan: A Case Study of the Qush Tepa National Irrigation Canal

Abstract

Thoughts and steps on implementing one of Daud Khan's five-year plan projects, named the Qush Tepa canal, began during the final years of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. These plans then provoked concerns among the stakeholders of the Amu Darya with the Taliban takeover in August 2021 and the acceleration of canal construction. There was a pressing need to study the canal for its opportunities and challenges. This research, adopting a mixedmethod approach, examined how the canal impacts the livelihoods of locals and agricultural productivity under a changing climate. The findings indicate that the canal is vital for Afghanistan, primarily to maintain food security for a growing population projected to reach 100 million by the end of the century. The canal is estimated to contribute around 400 million USD annually to Afghanistan's GDP. Additionally, if utilized correctly, the canal generates significant opportunities, enhancing food security and availability for Afghanistan and the region. Climate change has reduced cultivation areas since 2001, with reduced water flow, increased water usage, and decreased rainfall. The research concludes by acknowledging the annual reduction of around 6.5 billion m3 of water to downstream countries due to the new canal while highlighting the significant opportunity for mutual economic benefits for Afghanistan and Central Asian countries resulting from the canal's emergence.