Azerbaijan and Iran in the Shadows of Karabakh and Ukraine

Abstract

Iran and Azerbaijan have recently seen a rise in tensions over competing strategic visions for their respective roles in the Caucasus. Events such as the attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, seemingly allowed by the Iranian government, as well as Iranian military exercises near the border with Azerbaijan and the escalation of rhetoric coming out of Baku have pushed their relationship into a new era. Drawing on past scholarship and recent developments and analysis, this paper seeks to demonstrate the reasons for this deterioration of relations between the two countries, including the new position of power Azerbaijan finds itself in, the implications thereof for Iran, long-term Iranian policy goals, and other, wider regional changes and trends such as the echoes of the war in Ukraine. This paper argues that Iranian-Azerbaijani relations have reached this point through a mixture of Azerbaijani ascendancy, Iranian strategic failure, and the opportunities presented by Russia's weakened position in the South Caucasus.