Leader Change, Time in Office and the Determinants of Voter Perceptions

Abstract

There is a significant literature on the role of both parties and leaders in electoral politics and a broad understanding of the strength of the relationship between the two in voters' minds. However, less has been done to determine if there is systematic variation in whether voters see a party and its leader as one and the same. I address this question by using the Comparative Study of Electoral System to measure the impact of leader changes on voter perceptions. I find that new leaders are less likely to be evaluated according to the party they represent, with some evidence that maintaining the same leader over a long period of time increases the association between leader and party.