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What's really going on in the South China Sea?
[journal article]
Abstract Most analysts and commentators portray China's conduct in the South China Sea as a series of aggressive norm violations by an emerging peer competitor to the United States. We argue that this narrative misreads both the substance and dynamics of recent Chinese policy. Since 2016, China has strenuous... view more
Most analysts and commentators portray China's conduct in the South China Sea as a series of aggressive norm violations by an emerging peer competitor to the United States. We argue that this narrative misreads both the substance and dynamics of recent Chinese policy. Since 2016, China has strenuously sought - and largely managed - not to be in technical violation of the Philippines Arbitration Tribunal ruling despite having publicly disavowed it and has attempted to position itself as a champion of win-win co-operation. This stands in stark contrast to the previous four years in which China rather shockingly began asserting itself with little regard for either legality or diplomatic nicety - the period in which the "aggressive China" narrative gelled. What explains China's whiplash behaviour? Why has the international community largely failed to notice recent changes and adjust the narrative accordingly? We argue that the answers to these questions lie in an eclectic appeal to bureaucratic struggles, the regime's two-level game balancing domestic and international pressures, and psychological considerations. These do not, however, provide satisfactory accounts either of China's behaviour or of the international response in the absence of recognising the crucial importance of second-order rules for making, interpreting, and applying first-order rules in the international system. Social practices of rule-making, in short, provide vital context. Our analysis suggests a series of takeaways both for International Relations theory and for managing relations with China.... view less
Keywords
foreign policy; China; international relations; international politics; political behavior; cause
Classification
International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy
Free Keywords
Außenpolitik einzelner Staaten; Bestimmungsfaktoren der Außenpolitik; Südchinesisches Meer; Verhalten in den internationalen Beziehungen; Volksrepublik China
Document language
English
Publication Year
2022
Page/Pages
p. 214-239
Journal
Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 41 (2022) 2
ISSN
1868-4882
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed