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If not now, when? Climate disaster and the Green vote following the 2021 Germany floods
[journal article]
Abstract Can first-hand experience of a climate-related natural disaster make citizens more likely to vote in favour of progressive climate politics? Leveraging the rare occurrence of a large-scale disaster just two months before a federal election, we use a difference-in-differences design to study the shor... view more
Can first-hand experience of a climate-related natural disaster make citizens more likely to vote in favour of progressive climate politics? Leveraging the rare occurrence of a large-scale disaster just two months before a federal election, we use a difference-in-differences design to study the short-term electoral effects of the devastating 2021 Germany floods on voter support for Germany's major environmentalist party, the Green Party. Compared to other German voters, those living in areas affected by the floods were marginally (0.4-1.6 percentage points) more likely to vote for the Greens. The largest increases in Green vote share are observed in municipalities which were directly exposed to flooding. Contrary to expectation, we tend to find larger increases in Green Party support in the less severely affected areas. Despite substantial increases in turnout in affected areas, we find that the observed increase in vote share for the Greens was rather driven by a persuasion effect on voters who previously supported other parties. In the absence of evidence that the floods led to an increase in voters’ issue prioritisation of climate change, our results highlight the limited possibility for major natural disasters to induce increased localised support for Green parties.... view less
Keywords
Federal Republic of Germany; climate change; natural disaster; climate policy; Alliance 90/ The Greens; election to the Bundestag; voting behavior
Classification
Ecology, Environment
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Free Keywords
Vorwahl-Querschnitt (GLES 2017) (ZA6800 v5.0.1); GLES Querschnitt 2021, Vorwahl (ZA7700 v2.0.0)
Document language
English
Publication Year
2022
Page/Pages
p. 1-8
Journal
Research and Politics, 9 (2022) 4
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221141523
ISSN
2053-1680
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed