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Guatemala: A Vote for Turning the Tide
[working paper]
Corporate Editor
German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) - Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien, Institut für Lateinamerika-Studien
Abstract In the surprise victory of Bernardo Arévalo in Guatemala’s run-off presidential elections in August 2023, various elements came together: elite miscalculation, broad mobilisation of civil society, and some remnants of the rule of law. In Central America, authoritarianism has been on the rise for two... view more
In the surprise victory of Bernardo Arévalo in Guatemala’s run-off presidential elections in August 2023, various elements came together: elite miscalculation, broad mobilisation of civil society, and some remnants of the rule of law. In Central America, authoritarianism has been on the rise for two decades now. If Arévalo and his political reform agenda prevail, a turning point could be marked. Central American countries have seen a significant rolling back of democratic reforms and institutions. Nicaragua is once more a family dictatorship; El Salvador is on its way to electoral authoritarianism. The recent election of reformist Arévalo might be a sign that changing track via elections is indeed possible. Arévalo faced a bumpy road from election victory on 20 August 2023 to inauguration on 14 January of this year, as corrupt elites weaponised Guatemala's judicial system, trying to prevent him from taking office and undermining his ability to govern. Their remaining state control and connection to both state and non-state armed actors will also limit the new government’s scope for action. Significant challenges are looming for the new Guatemalan government. It does not have a majority in Congress and some of Arévalo’s staunchest adversaries, such as Attorney General María Consuelo Porras Argueta, are still in office. Strengthening democratic oversight mechanisms, re-establishing judicial independence, and nurturing an active civil society will be crucial for tackling authoritarian tendencies.... view less
Keywords
Guatemala; change of government; change in power; corruption; elite; election; domestic policy; judiciary; judicial power; democracy; political development; Central America
Classification
Political System, Constitution, Government
Document language
English
Publication Year
2024
City
Hamburg
Page/Pages
12 p.
Series
GIGA Focus Lateinamerika, 1
DOI
https://doi.org/10.57671/gOa-24012
Status
Published Version; reviewed