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The ins and outs of Central European unemployment
[journal article]
Abstract We examine the role of unemployment inflows and outflows in contributing to unemployment cyclicality in Czechia and Poland, using data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, and a three-state model of unemployment variance decomposition. We find that the labour market fl... view more
We examine the role of unemployment inflows and outflows in contributing to unemployment cyclicality in Czechia and Poland, using data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, and a three-state model of unemployment variance decomposition. We find that the labour market fluidity is higher in Poland than in Czechia, with Polish workers moving in and out of unemployment more frequently than their Czech counterparts. For both countries, the upward unemployment dynamics was during 2008-2011 driven by counter-cyclical increases in the job-separation rate, rather than by pro-cyclical declines in the job-finding rate. The inflow-outflow split was nonetheless more balanced in Czechia. The two economies further diverged across 2015-2018: Czech unemployment declined prevailingly due to diminishing job separations, while in Poland it was mostly due to improving job-finding prospects. This signals a deeper insider-outsider fragmentation of the Czech labour market, even during the period of economic expansion.... view less
Keywords
Central Europe; unemployment; labor market; Poland; Czech Republic
Classification
Labor Market Research
Free Keywords
unemployment variance decomposition; worker flows ; EU-SILC 2008-2011; EU-SILC 2015-2018; EU-LFS 1998-2017; EU-LFS 2008-2011; EU-LFS 2015-2018
Document language
English
Publication Year
2022
Page/Pages
p. 49-67
Journal
Baltic Journal of Economics, 22 (2022) 1
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2022.2083306
ISSN
1406-099X
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed