Russia's War on Ukrainian Farms: The Black Sea Theater

Abstract

Ukrainian agriculture is a central pillar of the country's economy and of its post-war recovery and reconstruction. Russia’s deliberate targeting of agricultural infrastructure and its naval blockade of the Black and Azov Seas have prevented Ukrainian grain from reaching world markets, threatening the global food system. Since Russia failed to renew its participation in the grain deal in July 2023, the Black Sea has become an increasingly contested space. Although Ukraine has unilaterally declared a maritime corridor and some commercial ships have defied Russia's warning that they may be targeted, in the absence of a new agreement on a Grain Corridor, this remains a perilous and risky path for Ukrainian grain. If there is hope for a new Grain Deal, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Türkiye, will likely be its broker. Erdoğan is interested in a normalization of food trade not only to shore up Türkiye's own food security, but because the country’s food-commodity trade relations with Europe and the Middle East make it a central node in the global food system.