Preparing for a Longer War: Is a Ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia possible by 2024?

Abstract

Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine has failed and is now a protracted war of attrition. Russia has adapted to this situation and prepared for a longer war. The legitimization of the Putin system is increasingly built around the war. As long as Ukraine has no security guarantees, a ceasefire is not realistic from either side. Therefore, the focus should be on protecting the territory Ukraine controls and defining together with the Western partners how security can be provided and what victory means. Key Findings: Since the Kremlin has no interest in a ceasefire agreement on acceptable terms for Ukraine, the West needs to support Ukraine so that time is no longer on Russia’s side. That means closing sanctions gaps, securing long term funding, and bringing Ukraine closer to NATO. Ukraine winning all territories back next year is unlikely. Therefore, the focus should be on protecting the territory controlled by Kyiv and preparing a new Ukrainian offensive in 2025 through an increase of production of ammunition and weapons by the West in 2024. Domestic resilience is crucial for Ukraine. EU integration brings the opportunity for fundamental political changes in the country. With the war, the EU has more leverage to demand reforms in areas like fighting corruption, rule of law, and administrative reforms. Only security guarantees by Western countries can open the path for a ceasefire agreement and the acceptance of temporary territorial losses. If the West is really serious about an end to the war, it needs to come to an agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine.