Transatlantic Cooperation on Ukraine: How Europe Could Respond to Uncertainty over US Assistance

Abstract

The difficult negotiations in the US Congress over a new aid package for Ukraine show that support has become a contested political issue in the US. Given the uncertainty over US assistance, European states should further strengthen their long-term commitment to Ukraine in terms of military and financial assistance. At the same time, given its own military shortcomings, Europe should seek avenues that could help convince Republicans in Congress to maintain US security assistance. Key Findings: In the US election campaign, some Republicans will criticize Biden’s Ukraine policy and Europe’s limited contributions. Europe should communicate its resolve effectively to US stakeholders. The launch of EU membership negotiations is an important political signal, but it needs to be backed up with financial commitments. If the European Council is unable to adopt the EUR 50 billion package, European governments should swiftly bring forward bilateral assistance instead. Given Europe’s shortcomings in supplying Ukraine with sufficient military equipment, continued US security assistance will remain important for some time. Europe should seek avenues to maintain Republican buy-in by indicating that it would be willing to expand its financial assistance further and re-consider its position on the frozen Russian assets.