China's Infrastructure Investment in the South Caucasus before and after Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shifted China’s interest in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route from being a complementary side corridor to becoming a main corridor for trade with Europe. Thanks to Chinese investment in the last twenty years, a network of rail, road, pipeline, and ship infrastructure exists to transport goods and energy from Asia through the South Caucasus to Europe. Yet, the existing physical and economic infrastructure needs to be enhanced in order to enable the transportation of a much larger volume of goods than initially intended at a faster speed. This requires transnational cooperation among the South Caucasus states that may become infeasible due to resurgent instabilities within the region also resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.