Under Pressure: Democratisation Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Military coups, leaders abolishing constitutional term limits, and violent conflicts undermining democratic governance have made headlines in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years. However, longitudinal data from key democracy indices and survey data from Afrobarometer reveal that the state of democracy in Africa is better than expected in certain regards. Democracy indices show a strong increase for sub-Saharan Africa since 1990. While only relatively few countries qualify as "democratic" and many more remain in the grey zone between democracy and autocracy, recent "backsliding" trends have not offset past gains. Although frequently dissatisfied with their leaders and with how democracy works, two-thirds of Africans support democracy while even bigger majorities reject authoritarian alternatives. Africans' support for it already makes an independent case for democracy. In addition, democracy also means freedom from oppression as well as the right to choose one's rulers. Democratic systems can manage conflicts peacefully and are arguably better for socio-economic development. Major threats to democracy include adverse socio-economic conditions, intergroup conflicts, a politicised military, and authoritarian-minded civilian leaders. External factors such as support for dictators, the influx of authoritarian ideologies and narratives, as well as increased external rivalries over "zones of influence" pose a special threat.