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The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Armenia's foreign trade: a quantitative analysis
[journal article]
Abstract This article aimed to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Armenia's foreign trade. The research problem was to analyze how the conflict influenced Armenia's export and import patterns regarding geographical directions and product structure. The object... view more
This article aimed to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Armenia's foreign trade. The research problem was to analyze how the conflict influenced Armenia's export and import patterns regarding geographical directions and product structure. The objectives were to examine the changes in trade turnover and identify shifts in geographical trade directions and trade structure. The study employed various statistical analysis tools, including dynamic series indicators, structural analysis, time series modeling, trend and moving average approximation, and extrapolation. Through these methods, the study evaluated the effects of the conflict on Armenia’s foreign trade. The key results indicated a positive impact of the conflict on trade turnover, with increased trade activity in various geographical directions. Export diversification was also observed as a result of the conflict. Notably, re-export played a significant role in the unprecedented growth of Armenia's trade turnover during this period. In conclusion, the findings suggest that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict had a discernible influence on Armenia's foreign trade, leading to changes in trade patterns and increased trade activity. The study highlights the importance of the re-exports role in analyzing trade dynamics.... view less
Keywords
Armenia; foreign trade; influence; Russia; Ukraine; war
Classification
Political Economy
Free Keywords
Trend Analysis; Approximation; Forecasting
Document language
English
Publication Year
2023
Page/Pages
p. 89-103
Journal
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs, 9 (2023) 2
ISSN
1857-9760
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed