"Modernizing" the constitution to preempt a succession crisis? Belarus between Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Armenia

Abstract

In the course of the past years, Lukashenka has built up public expectations that sooner or later, constitutionalamendments were inevitable. There is evidence that Lukashenka and his entourage are actively monitoring constitutional amendments in thepost-Soviet space aimed at bolstering the regimes of the incumbents, in particular Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, andArmenia. This might indirectly implicate that there are clandestine considerations about how to gradually adaptthe current institutional setting and therefore to preempt a potential succession crisis. The reality is different. Despite numerous statements, the Constitution has remained unscathed since 2004. In the presidential discourse, the Constitution is firmly associated withstability, state sovereignty, security, and an evolutionary path of state-building. Opposition groups who have beencampaigning for a constitutional referendum such as Gavary Praūdu (Tell the Truth) can thus easily bedenigrated as subversive and anti-Belarusian.