The North Caucasus Insurgency: a Potential Spillover into the Russian Federation?

Abstract

This contribution investigates the causes behind the downfall of the North Caucasus insurgency focusing on the pre-Sochi counter-insurgency and the massive outflow of foreign fighters to Syria and Iraq. In order to do so, this article provides a short historical background on the North Caucasus insurgency since the establishment of the Caucasus Emirate and discusses the threat of foreign fighters returning to the North Caucasus. It argues that although the insurgency has been crushed and entered a latent and incipient stage in 2014, the potential return of foreign fighters coupled with the recurrent discriminatory policies against Islam in Russia and the Islamic State's online propaganda might trigger a new spillover and upsurge of insurgent violence outside of the North Caucasus.