Sino-Russian Recalibration in Central Asia?

Abstract

The article examines Sino-Russian relations in Central Asia against the background of the deepening partnership between Moscow and Beijing. We have yet to see any substantial Sino-Russian cooperation in Central Asia, even though Xi and Putin pledged at their March 2023 summit meeting to expand such cooperation. China's Central Asian diplomacy has been more active of late, but this has not necessarily come at the expense of Russian influence. While some Chinese experts see Russia’s distraction with the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to advance the PRC's economic interests in the region, others point to China's soft-power deficit as an obstacle to further gains. Despite China’s growing economic clout, Russia retains considerable negative hegemony and has sought to check Chinese plans for energy connectivity to maintain its own role as a regional energy supplier. Though the two countries share an interest in preventing the expansion of Western influence, Russian and Chinese actions have in fact led the Central Asian countries to seek partners outside the region.