Armenia's Velvet Revolution in the Discourse of the Azerbaijani Elite

Abstract

This article examines the discourse of the Azerbaijani elite surrounding Armenia's "velvet revolution" in the spring of 2018, focusing on the implications of its potential emulation in Azerbaijan as well as on the management of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The article shows that the Armenian revolution has had no impact on protest activity in Azerbaijan due to structural constraints on collective action and the lack of a common frame of reference. In addition, the events in Armenia were mainly viewed in Azerbaijan through the prism of Karabakh. Even though this event revealed an initial moderate softening of the Azerbaijani government's stance, the unexpectedly hardline position taken by the new Armenian leader prompted Azerbaijan to adopt a more hawkish position. This, in turn, has led both sides to revert to the usual cycle of the discursive zero-sum game. While this suggests that ethnic discourses are not completely immutable, if a peaceful resolution is valued, it will require a more fundamental change in the ideologies of the current political actors and in their underlying nationalist master frames. Given the present setup of political forces in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, where exclusionary versions of nationalist ideologies prevail, this does not seem to be a possibility in the near future.