Black Sea Geopolitics after the Russia-Ukraine War: View from Georgia

Abstract

This article explores the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Georgia's foreign and domestic policies and the country's place and role in the Black Sea region. It draws on interviews and expert surveys to examine how Georgia's foreign policy community views recent dramatic developments in the Black Sea area and the impact of the latter on Georgia's security, stability, and evelopment. The article further critically assesses Georgia's response to the Russia-Ukraine war and how it fits with the country's main foreign policy trends, including the much criticized Finlandization policy towards Russia. The article concludes that while the Black Sea area remains of paramount importance to Georgia, the Russia-Ukraine war made Georgia's security more vulnerable to risks and threats emanating from the region. Furthermore, the war deepened the political and societal polarization in Georgia and, as our data suggest, exacerbated the schism between Georgia's mostly pro-Western foreign policy expert community and the government's balanced foreign policy.