The Poverty of Authoritarianism: What Made the Armenian Revolution Possible

Abstract

While revolutions are difficult to predict, the Armenian revolution was particularly unexpected, as it happened at a time when the political regime seemed highly stable. However, in hindsight, it has become clear that the political regime that had been built in Armenia had exhausted itself, with the pre-conditions for the revolution building up in recent years. Armenia’s political system had gravitated from a hybrid regime to a consolidated authoritarian regime, albeit a soft one. However, this consolidation actually deprived the Armenian regime of the flexibility that is often key to the survival of authoritarian regimes. In the absence of other factors that can boost authoritarian regimes (e.g., foreign policy successes, charismatic appeal of leaders, strong ideology, or high profits from exporting natural resources), the Armenian regime had few resources to ensure its survival.