Protest and Opposition: Short-Term Depression, Long-Term Uncertainty

Abstract

Protest and opposition in Russia have had a complex and at times conflictual relationship. But as elections have gradually lost their competitiveness, protest has become increasingly important. This article presents educated guesses about the future of the relationship between protest and opposition in light of Russia's war against Ukraine. In the short term, the regime’s clearly signaled readiness to quell any form of resistance suggests that protest is unlikely. In the long term, however, changing socio-economic conditions have the potential to reshuffle the protest landscape and generate incentives among elites to address social grievances, perhaps even giving new life to the loyal opposition. Protest, therefore, might not only re-emerge, but also usher in a new phase of political opposition.