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@article{ Yakovlev2022, title = {Russia's Economy: Between a Crash and a Hard Landing}, author = {Yakovlev, Andrei}, journal = {Russian Analytical Digest}, number = {283}, pages = {7-9}, year = {2022}, issn = {1863-0421}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000542143}, urn = {https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-86985-9}, abstract = {Based on macro-level data, most analysts forecasting Russia's economic development following the introduction of new large-scale sanctions expect a 10-12% drop in GDP, 20-25% inflation, and an increase in unemployment from 4.4% to 7-8% by the end of this year. This article argues that in the context of a severe economic shock, micro-data and comparison with similar cases offer a better guide to future developments than macro-data. They point to a much sharper decline in economic activity than is currently being forecasted.}, }