What If States Realized Their Societal Goals Through Alliances Built on Critical Raw Materials?

Abstract

This scenario explores what could happen if groups of states joined forces with like-minded allies to realize societal goals that can only be attained through an ample supply of raw materials: decarbonization, militarization, digitalization, and securing enough energy to bolster emerging middle classes. By 2030, four alliances emerge. Each one aims to accomplish its own discrete goals, and all are alienated from the others. The EU, which belongs to an alliance of circular economies, asks itself what steps it can take to promote the global stewardship of public goods and civil liberties.