What If Smart Cities Encouraged Stupid Risks?

Abstract

In 2030, the world's major powers increasingly exploit vulnerabilities in so-called smart cities. In particular, spooks target those cities that operate services based on Chinese tech infrastructure, including Shanghai, St. Petersburg, and Buenos Aires. When a wave of hundreds of such disruptions hits, the major powers downplay this huge incident as a "normal accident" inherent in complex systems. Since the usual suspects - Moscow, Beijing, Washington, Iran, and North Korea - are all negatively affected, none of them seem to have a motive. Indeed, the cause of the disruptions turns out to be much deeper, with roots stretching back a decade. Assessing this hypothetical incident offers real insight into the systemic nature of tech risk.