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The role of nuclear weapons in Russia's strategic deterrence: implications for European security and nuclear arms control
Die Rolle von Nuklearwaffen in Russlands strategischer Abschreckung: Implikationen für die europäische Sicherheit und die nukleare Rüstungskontrolle
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Corporate Editor
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract In the West, Russia's nuclear deterrence strategy is often described as one of "escalate to deescalate". The thinking goes that Moscow is prepared to use nuclear weapons at an early stage in a conflict in order to "deescalate" and terminate the confrontation quickly in its favour. However, Russia's ... view more
In the West, Russia's nuclear deterrence strategy is often described as one of "escalate to deescalate". The thinking goes that Moscow is prepared to use nuclear weapons at an early stage in a conflict in order to "deescalate" and terminate the confrontation quickly in its favour. However, Russia's official military doctrine, nuclear exercises of the Russian military, and debates among political and military elites have so far pointed in a different direction. With the concept of "strategic deterrence", Russia has developed a holistic deterrence strategy in which nuclear weapons remain an important element. Yet, to gain more flexibility below the nuclear threshold in order to manage escalation, the strategy also conceptualises a broad range of non-military and conventional means. Given Russia's dwindling arsenal of conventional precision weapons due to its war against Ukraine as well as the strategic adaptation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Russia's strategy is likely to change: In the coming years, Russia's reliance on its non-strategic nuclear weapons will probably increase. These developments could both undermine crisis stability in Europe and further impede the prospects for nuclear arms control in the future.... view less
Keywords
Russia; nuclear weapon; deterrence; defense policy; security policy; international security; EU; arms control
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Nuklearwaffen; Nuklearstrategie; Bedeutung/Rolle; Implikation; Regionale Sicherheit; Militärische Bedrohungsanalyse
Document language
English
Publication Year
2022
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
7 p.
Series
SWP Comment, 68/2022
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2022C68
ISSN
2747-5107
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications