Cost and benefits of deep decarbonization in Russia

Abstract

With the new Paris climate agreement, 185 of 197 nations have committed to lower emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases. The intent is to limit global temperature growth within 2 degrees Celsius (°C), with a hopeful target of 1.5°C. At the same time, a special report from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that large emission reductions, in fact, must be achieved by 2030 if the temperature increase is to remain below 1.5°C. This goal requires every country to radically cut their greenhouse gas emissions by rebuilding both their energy supply and end-use sectors. Even bigger challenges confront those countries which export fossil fuel resources, as they must also find new sources of economic activity to replace revenues that will be lost from the significantly reduced energy sales. The overall economic impact of this transformation is hard to quantify. On the one hand, decarbonization requires an initial set of large-scale policy, program, and research and development expenditures. It will also entail higher upfront investments in energy efficiency and alternative energy resources. Based on conventional wisdom, these outlays will create an initial burden on the economy. On the other hand, the additional infrastructure investments will also stimulate economic activity, reduce future energy expenditures and also provide an array of other non-energy benefits. In this paper, we propose a thought experiment that explores the idea of prospective positive net economic impacts of decarbonization strategies for an energy-producing nation. Our results suggest that the positive productivity benefits of decarbonization strategies can overcome negative costs in both the short and long terms. We also note additional effects that are consistent with the officially announced long-term goals of modernization and reducing the Russian economy’s dependence on revenues from energy and raw material exports.