Brazil's Changing Foreign Policy Ambitions: Lula, Bolsonaro and Grand Strategy Analysis in the Global South

Abstract

This study compares three cases of Brazilian foreign policy: two administrations under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-04 and 2007-08) and the Jair Messias Bolsonaro administration (2019-20). It offers insight both into the flow of Brazilian grand strategy and into a new method to systematically and consistently analyze grand strategies across the global north and south. To do this, it applies an analytical framework dubbed "grand strategy analysis" (GSA). This approach is actor-centered. It identifies grand strategy in the overlap between leaders' rhetoric and policy decisions; thus, it is sensitive to beliefs and perceptions as well as concrete, "hard power" considerations. This study draws upon contemporary news reports, expert interviews, and academic studies to observe grand strategy across the three cases. It finds that each administration has been constrained or shaped by Brazil's existing economic, diplomatic and military status and investments, yet each president’s domestic political calculations and ideological commitments unfolded in surprising ways. Lula entered office with strong leftist credentials and rhetoric, yet he brought unusual ambition to elevate Brazil's profile. Bolsonaro, by contrast, emulated contemporary nationalist rhetoric prominent in foreign capitals such as Washington D.C. and Ankara. He also elevated support for the military, yet his strategic approach returned to older patterns for Brazil in which the president’s domestic agenda dictates his foreign policy positions.