dc.contributor.author | Favaro, Marina | de |
dc.contributor.author | Renic, Neil | de |
dc.contributor.author | Kühn, Ulrich | de |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-10-17T11:19:17Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-10-17T11:19:17Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2022 | de |
dc.identifier.uri | https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/81758 | |
dc.description.abstract | We asked 30 experts to forecast the developmental trajectories of twelve emerging technologies in the United States, Russia, and China until 2040 and to score their possible future impact on arms race stability, crisis stability, and humanitarian principles. The results reveal that, on average, their impact is expected to be negative, with some technologies negatively affecting all three dependent variables. We used a machine learning algorithm to cluster the technologies according to their anticipated impact. This process identified
technology clusters comprised of diverse high-impact technologies that share key impact characteristics but do not necessarily share technical characteristics. We refer to these combined effects as ‘negative multiplicity’, reflecting the predominantly negative, concurrent, and in some cases similar, first- and second-order effects that emerging technologies are expected to have on international stability and human security. The expected alignment of the
technology development trajectories of the United States, Russia, and China by 2040, in combination with the negative environment created by geopolitical competition, points to a nascent technological arms race that threatens to seriously impede international arms control efforts to regulate emerging technologies. | de |
dc.language | en | de |
dc.subject.ddc | Politikwissenschaft | de |
dc.subject.ddc | Political science | en |
dc.subject.ddc | Technik, Technologie | de |
dc.subject.ddc | Technology (Applied sciences) | en |
dc.title | Negative Multiplicity: Forecasting the Future Impact of Emerging Technologies on International Stability and Human Security | de |
dc.description.review | begutachtet | de |
dc.description.review | reviewed | en |
dc.source.volume | 010 | de |
dc.publisher.country | DEU | de |
dc.publisher.city | Hamburg | de |
dc.source.series | IFSH Research Report | |
dc.subject.classoz | Friedens- und Konfliktforschung, Sicherheitspolitik | de |
dc.subject.classoz | Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy | en |
dc.subject.classoz | Technikfolgenabschätzung | de |
dc.subject.classoz | Technology Assessment | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | technische Entwicklung | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | technical development | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | politische Stabilität | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | political stability | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | menschliche Sicherheit | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | human security | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Prognose | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | prognosis | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Rüstungskontrolle | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | arms control | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | neue Technologie | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | new technology | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Auswirkung | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | impact | en |
dc.subject.thesoz | Technikfolgen | de |
dc.subject.thesoz | effects of technology | en |
dc.rights.licence | Creative Commons - Namensnennung, Nicht kommerz., Keine Bearbeitung 4.0 | de |
dc.rights.licence | Creative Commons - Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 | en |
internal.status | formal und inhaltlich fertig erschlossen | de |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10042239 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10044378 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10045995 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10036432 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10049693 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10053171 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10037482 | |
internal.identifier.thesoz | 10043853 | |
dc.type.stock | monograph | de |
dc.type.document | Forschungsbericht | de |
dc.type.document | research report | en |
dc.source.pageinfo | 107 | de |
internal.identifier.classoz | 10507 | |
internal.identifier.classoz | 20800 | |
internal.identifier.document | 12 | |
dc.contributor.corporateeditor | Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik an der Universität Hamburg (IFSH) | |
internal.identifier.corporateeditor | 984 | |
internal.identifier.ddc | 320 | |
internal.identifier.ddc | 600 | |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.25592/ifsh-research-report-010 | de |
dc.description.pubstatus | Veröffentlichungsversion | de |
dc.description.pubstatus | Published Version | en |
internal.identifier.licence | 20 | |
internal.identifier.pubstatus | 1 | |
internal.identifier.review | 2 | |
internal.identifier.series | 1824 | |
dc.subject.classhort | 10500 | de |
internal.pdf.valid | false | |
internal.pdf.wellformed | true | |
internal.pdf.encrypted | false | |
ssoar.urn.registration | false | de |