Russia on the road to dictatorship: internal political repercussions of the attack on Ukraine

Abstract

The invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has catapulted Russia from hard autoc­racy into dictatorship. The relationship between state and society is growing increasingly totalitarian. This is no bolt from the blue: Today's wartime censorship and re­pression are based on laws passed successively since the early 2010s. Vladimir Putin’s decision to go to war has absolutised the Russian power vertical. The negation of rights has accelerated, propaganda is massive and the suppression of independent media, opposition and civil society comprehensive. This will not change as long as Putin remains in power. But in the medium term the immense pressure generated by the war and the Western sanctions could bring about domestic political change and see an end to Putin's regime. The conceivable scenarios, however, point to destabilisation rather than democratisation. (author's abstract)