China's Pursuit of Power in Central Asia

Abstract

Each Chinese administration since 1991 has showed different styles of engagement with Central Asia. While the significance of Central Asia has remained largely unchanged, these policy differences under each Chinese administration have been led by domestic drivers of foreign policy. Under the Jiang administration, policy towards Central Asia reacted to weak international bargaining power coupled with a Soviet-influenced Chinese government. This has resulted in a careful, impactful policy on the ground. Driven by the Chinese economic miracle, the Hu administration implemented various strategies to bring closer the Chinese and Central Asian economies. For the Xi administration, an ideologically driven foreign policy in Central Asia has failed to pursue a clear actionable policy in the region compared to previous administrations. China-Central Asia relations post-COVID19 will be largely driven by how quickly the Chinese economy recovers, when financing becomes available to kick-start Xi's Belt and Road Initiative. The key to the argument in this policy brief is that analytical examination of Chinese foreign policy in Central Asia (and elsewhere) must in the first instance take into account China's domestic factors given their capacity to influence actions of the Chinese Communist Party. This theoretical ground subsequently offers policy recommendations for leaders of Central Asian states in understanding and working with China's pursuit in the region.