Central Asian Water Cooperation after COVID-19: Could the Impact of the Pandemic Challenge the Achievements of the Recent 'Water Thaw'?

Abstract

This paper discusses the impact of COVID-19 on the recent positive turn in the dynamics of regional water cooperation (the so-called ‘water thaw’) in Central Asia, starting from the research question whether the pandemic could challenge the emerging cooperation of the ‘water thaw’. In order to explore this, the analysis is divided into three parts. First, it examines the effects of the pandemic on the economic, social, and political variables influencing water related issues. The analysis of these intervening variables shows how the adverse impact of the pandemic on different areas has the potential to challenge regional water cooperation. In the second part, the research focuses on recent events and developments related to regional cooperation. Regional cooperation makes another important intervening variable to test the connection between the impact of the pandemic and regional water cooperation because the likelihood of the development of water cooperation is higher when regional cooperation functions well in general. The third part examines the functioning of regional cooperation in two extremely sensitive cases of interstate water-related tensions during the pandemic, namely the Sardoba dam catastrophe in 2020 and the Kyrgyz-Tajik conflict in 2021.