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Diplomacy and artificial intelligence: reflections on practical assistance for diplomatic negotiations
Diplomatie und Künstliche Intelligenz: Überlegungen zur praktischen Hilfestellung für diplomatische Verhandlungen
[Arbeitspapier]
Körperschaftlicher Herausgeber
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract AI holds the promise of being able to analyse large amounts of data faster and more reliably than humans can. So is it also possible to use AI systems to analyse information relevant to diplomatic negotiations in a way that adds significant strategic value? We explore this question through two expl... mehr
AI holds the promise of being able to analyse large amounts of data faster and more reliably than humans can. So is it also possible to use AI systems to analyse information relevant to diplomatic negotiations in a way that adds significant strategic value? We explore this question through two exploratory case studies. The first examines the negotiations for a German-Austrian customs union in 1929/30. Here we show how AI systems could be used to develop a spectrum of possible scenarios in an automated way for the purposes of strategy formation. The second case study looks at the negotiations on the so-called "cybercrime" resolution within the framework of the United Nations (UN). In cooperation with the Federal Foreign Office (AA), the study investigates whether and in what form AI systems allow the behaviour of states in the UN General Assembly to be predicted. Based on the two case studies, we take a systematic look at further possibilities for using AI as a tool for diplomacy, for example, in the automated monitoring of public media around a negotiation process. Today, AI is still often prone to error and will foreseeably not be able to replace the judgement of experienced diplomats. As a supporting tool, however, AI has the potential to make an indispensable contribution to the preparation and conduct of diplomatic negotiations. German foreign policy should create the conditions to further explore the potential of AI and other methods of data analysis for the purposes of diplomatic negotiations, develop a "foreign policy data strategy" and draw up normative guidelines for the use of AI in the context of diplomacy. (author's abstract)... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Bundesrepublik Deutschland; internationale Beziehungen; Außenpolitik; politische Kommunikation; Diplomatie; künstliche Intelligenz; Verhandlung; Datenverarbeitung; Datenschutz; Monitoring; Automatisierung
Klassifikation
internationale Beziehungen, Entwicklungspolitik
Technikfolgenabschätzung
Freie Schlagwörter
Verhandlungsstrategie; Erfolg; Informationsanalyse; Evaluation; Elektronische Datenverarbeitung; Fallstudie; Zollunion; Österreich; Computerkriminalität
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2022
Erscheinungsort
Berlin
Seitenangabe
31 S.
Schriftenreihe
SWP Research Paper, 1/2022
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2022RP01
ISSN
1863-1053
Status
Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet
Lizenz
Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung